IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Texas San Antonio
Conference USA
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	+0.5	#158
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	76.7	#32
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.7	#141

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.2	#173

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	4.0%	10.3%	4.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.2%	3.2%	0.3%
Average Seed	19.7	11.7	13.3

.500 or above	49.5%	70.6%	40.6%
.500 or above in Conference	77.5%	81.7%	75.8%
Conference Champion	5.1%	8.4%	3.7%
Last Place in Conference	2.2%	1.0%	2.7%

First Four	0.8%	1.6%	0.5%
First Round	5.8%	9.5%	4.3%
Second Round	1.4%	2.6%	0.9%
Sweet Sixteen	0.4%	0.9%	0.2%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Oklahoma (Home) - 29.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.1 - 0.8	0.1 - 0.8
Quad 1b	0.3 - 1.8	0.3 - 2.6
Quad 2	1.4 - 4.1	1.7 - 6.7
Quad 3	4.3 - 4.8	6.0 - 11.4
Quad 4	7.5 - 2.1	13.5 - 13.5

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 12, 2018	53	Oklahoma	L	81-90	30%
Nov 14, 2018	74	@ Oklahoma St.	L	73-80	19%
Nov 19, 2018	90	UC Irvine	L	71-76	32%
Nov 20, 2018	79	South Dakota St.	L	78-84	30%
Nov 21, 2018	179	Florida Gulf Coast	W	80-79	54%
Nov 26, 2018	312	@ Houston Baptist	W	88-79	71%
Dec 01, 2018	203	Texas St.	W	71-68	69%
Dec 15, 2018	94	Arkansas	L	76-81	34%
Dec 20, 2018	309	@ TX A&M Corpus Christi	W	78-69	71%
Jan 03, 2019	249	UTEP	W	77-71	76%
Jan 05, 2019	249	@ UTEP	W	77-71	58%
Jan 10, 2019	323	Rice	W	80-70	87%
Jan 12, 2019	132	North Texas	L	74-76	53%
Jan 17, 2019	157	@ Middle Tennessee	L	72-73	40%
Jan 19, 2019	187	@ UAB	W	76-74	46%
Jan 24, 2019	301	Charlotte	W	84-76	84%
Jan 26, 2019	102	Old Dominion	L	68-72	48%
Jan 31, 2019	60	@ Western Kentucky	L	75-83	17%
Feb 02, 2019	99	@ Marshall	L	84-88	28%
Feb 07, 2019	226	Florida International	W	78-74	73%
Feb 09, 2019	266	Florida Atlantic	W	78-72	78%
Feb 14, 2019	163	@ Southern Miss	W	75-74	41%
Feb 16, 2019	141	@ Louisiana Tech	L	75-76	36%
Feb 28, 2019	102	Old Dominion	L	68-72	48%
Mar 03, 2019	187	UAB	W	76-74	64%
Mar 06, 2019	60	@ Western Kentucky	L	75-83	17%
Mar 09, 2019	163	@ Southern Miss	W	75-74	42%
Projected Record						13.5 - 13.5	9.4 - 8.6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Conference USA Finish

	0-14	1-13	2-12	3-11	4-10	5-9	6-8	7-7	8-6	9-5	10-4	11-3	12-2	13-1	14-0		Total
1st													0.1	0.5	1.3		1.8	1st
2nd												0.1	0.9	2.2	2.3		5.6	2nd
3rd											0.0	1.2	3.3	2.9	1.1		8.5	3rd
4th										0.0	0.9	3.2	3.5	0.8	0.1		8.5	4th
5th									0.0	0.7	3.6	4.2	1.5	0.0			10.1	5th
6th								0.0	0.4	3.1	4.8	1.9	0.1	0.0			10.3	6th
7th								0.2	2.4	5.3	2.4	0.2					10.4	7th
8th						0.0	0.1	1.7	4.9	2.7	0.4						9.8	8th
9th						0.0	0.9	3.5	3.4	0.6	0.0						8.4	9th
10th					0.0	0.6	2.9	3.0	1.0	0.1							7.6	10th
11th				0.0	0.3	2.1	2.5	0.9	0.0								6.0	11th
12th			0.0	0.4	1.3	2.0	0.9	0.1									4.7	12th
13th		0.0	0.3	0.9	1.0	0.7	0.1	0.0									3.1	13th
14th	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0										0.9	14th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.6	1.6	2.8	5.5	7.4	9.5	12.0	12.4	12.2	10.8	9.5	6.4	4.8			Total

Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
14-0	27.1%	1.3		0.3	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0
13-1	7.1%	0.5		0.0	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0
12-2	0.6%	0.1		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-3	0.0%
10-4	0.0%
9-5	0.0%
8-6	0.0%
7-7	0.0%

Total	1.8%	1.8		0.4	0.8	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
14-0	4.8%		19.6%	16.1%	3.4%	12.3										0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0		3.8		4.1%
13-1	6.4%		11.9%	11.2%	0.7%	13.1										0.0		0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1		5.7		0.8%
12-2	9.5%		7.5%	7.5%	0.0%	13.9											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0	8.7		0.0%
11-3	10.8%		5.9%	5.9%	0.0%	14.1													0.0	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.0	10.1		0.0%
10-4	12.2%		3.2%	3.2%		14.4													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.0	11.8
9-5	12.4%		1.4%	1.4%		15.1														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	12.3
8-6	12.0%		1.1%	1.1%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	11.9
7-7	9.5%		1.6%	1.6%		15.8															0.0	0.0	0.1	9.3
6-8	7.4%		0.2%	0.2%		15.2																0.0	0.0	7.4
5-9	5.5%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	5.5
4-10	2.8%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	2.8
3-11	1.6%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	1.6
2-12	0.6%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	0.6
1-13	0.1%																							0.1
0-14	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		4.0%	3.8%	0.2%	13.7										0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	0.9	1.0	0.8	0.4	96.0		0.2%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	4.0			50.0		50.0